Mengoptimalkan Pemanfaatan Energi di Indonesia

Oleh: Prof. Ir. Widjajono  Partowidagdo,  MSc. MSOR, MA, Ph.D.

"Negara yang baik membutuhkan adilnya Pemimpin, amalnya Pengusaha, ilmunya Akademisi (Ulama) serta kesabaran, kemandirian dan kepedulian Masyarakat."
~Alm. Prof. Widjajono~ 

‎"Saya seorang dosen, kalau gak niat ngebenerin bangsa ini, buat apa saya terjun ke pemerintahan"

Produksi dan Cadangan Minyak kita terbukti turun terus. Walaupun cadangan  gas kita empat kali lipat cadangan Minyak tetapi program konversi Minyak ke Gas Domestik terbukti tidak berjalan mulus. Program 10.000 MW PLTU (Uap) Batubara tidak berjalan mulus dan sebagian besar produksi batubara kita diekspor.

PLTA (Air)  di luar Jawa kurang berkembang.

Program Bahan Bakar Nabati tidak berjalan seperti yang diharapkan. 

PLTS (Surya) dan PLTB (Bayu) banyak yang tidak berfungsi lagi.

Berarti ada yang tidak pas di Negeri ini.

Marilah kita evaluasi satu per satu.

Minyak kurang berkembang karena sistem fiskal dan iklim investasi yang kurang menarik. Gas kurang termanfaatkan untuk domestik karena harga domestik yang tidak menarik dan tidak disiapkannya infrastruktur dimasa lalu.

Batubara 10.000 MW kurang berkembang karena terdapat masalah  negosiasi, birokrasi dan koordinasi.

Kebanyakan batubara diekspor karena harga domestik yang kurang menarik dibandingkan harga ekspor.

PLTA kurang berkembang karena masalah birokrasi, koordinasi, promosi dan kemauan politik untuk mengembangkan industri di luar Jawa.

Panasbumi kurang berkembang karena harga domestik yang tidak menarik di masa lalu.

Bioenergi kurang berkembang karena masalah harga, peraturan, insentif, birokrasi, koordinasi  dan litbang.

Surya dan bayu tidak terawat karena kurang dikembangkan litbang dan Kemampuan Nasional disamping masalah birokrasi dan koordinasi. Konservasi kurang berhasil karena harga energi murah, peraturan (kurangnya insentif untuk penghematan energi) dan kurangnya dukungan bagi litbang serta kurangnya peningkatan kemampuan nasional untuk itu.

Menurut International Sustainable Energy Organization (ISEO) Biaya Energi Terbarukan seperti Energi Surya, Energi Angin, Panasbumi, Arus Laut dan Hidrogen akan turun di masa depan, sedangkan Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Air (PLTA) akan naik (walaupun masih tetap rendah). Biaya Energi Tak Terbarukan seperti Minyak, Gas, Batubara dan Nuklir akan naik  di masa depan.

German Working Party, 2004 memperkirakan Biaya Energi sampai tahun 2050 termasuk menggunakan Geocogen (Geothermal deepwell energy cogeneration) dan SBSP (Space Based Solar Power). Juga diperkirakan True Energy Cost dengan memperhitungkan Resiko, Biaya Lingkungan dan Carbon Credit (Sumber: Gustav R. Grob (ISEO Executive Secretary dan ICEC President).

ISEO adalah International Sustainable Energy Organization sedangkan ICEC adalah International Clean Energy Consortium. Judul makalahnya adalah “Energy Status Quo and Technology towards Clean Energy”, Chengdu, China, September 28, 2010).

Batubara bisa lebih bersih lingkungan, konsekuensinya biayanya lebih mahal. Batubara bisa dibuat cair (Coal To Liquid atau CTL) atau dijadikan gas. Gas bisa dibuat cair (Gas To Liquid atau GTL). Gas bisa diperoleh dari Gas Alam (Potensi 335 TCF), dari CBM (Potensi 454 TCF), Shale Gas dan dari Methane Hydrate (Potensi 625 TCF) . Nuklir dari Uranium dan Thorium (FISI) adalah Tak Terbarukan.

Tidak benar kalau energi nuklir sangat aman karena disamping Chernobyl dan Three Mile Island, di Amerika Serikat 27 dari 104 reaktor nuklirnya pernah bocor (Tobi Raikkonen, 12 Maret 2010). Menurut USA Today 17 Juli 2007 di Jepang terjadi kebocoran nuklir 1997-2007 sebanyak 8 kali. Apalagi kemudian terjadi tragedi Fukushima (2011).

Banyak Negara-negara Eropa yang menutup PLTN (Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Nuklir) nya 2020.

Penanganan dan penyimpanan limbah Uranium yang benar adalah mahal dan kalau tidak benar berbahaya.

Perancis bisa membantu  memproses limbah Uranium tetapi limbah terakhirnya tetap dikirim ke Negara asal yang mempunyai PLTN.

Konsorsium Uni Eropa, Jepang, Cina, India, Korsel, Rusia dan Amerika Serikat membiayai Pengembangan Nuklir FUSI yaitu ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) TOKAMAK di Perancis Selatan.

(ITER) TOKAMAK tersebut diharapkan bisa dikembangkan secara komersial pada tahun 2020 an dan dibuat dari reaksi FUSI antara Detrium dan Tritium yang limbahnya relatif aman (dibandingkan Uranium).

Indonesia sebaiknya fokus pada FUSI.

Andai kata Nuklir FISI ingin dikembangkan segera maka paling cepat  dioperasikan pada 2021 karena memerlukan 10 tahun untuk merealisasikan PLTN  seperti  di Malaysia. Sebaiknya Indonesia bekerjasama dengan Singapura dan Malaysia (lebih baik bila juga dengan Negara-negara Asean lainnya).

Lokasi pembangkitannya bisa di Pulau kosong di Indonesia dekat Singapura. Makin banyak Negara-negara yang mengawasi diharapkan makin aman dan makin banyak Negara-negara yang memakai makin murah.

Urutan Global Innovation Index (Maret 2009) dari beberapa Anggota Asean dan Negara Maju adalah sebagai berikut:

1. Singapore, 2. South Korea, 8. US, 9. Japan, 15. UK, 19. Germany, 20. France, 21. Malaysia, 27. China, 44. Thailand, 46. India, 49. Russia, 71. Indonesia.

Tidak benar kalau nuklir adalah energi yang paling murah. International Energy Agency atau IEA di Paris tahun 2010 memberikan Electricity Generation Costs  2010 dan Perkiraan 2050 (Tabel 1) yang menunjukkan energi lain kecuali minyak dan matahari tidak lebih mahal saat ini (2010) dan justru lebih murah di 2050 kecuali minyak.

Kita masih bisa mencukupi kebutuhan energi sampai 2030 dengan menggunakan Energi Domestik
(Minyak, Gas, CBM, Shale Gas,  Batubara, Panasbumi, Air, Surya, Angin, Laut, Biofuel dan Biogas) serta mengembangkan Kemampuan Nasional untuk memproduksikan Energi Terbarukan dan Konservasi Energi.

Bahkan kalau perlu mengimpor gas dan batubara (yang lebih murah dari BBM) serta  mengusahakan migas di luar negeri.

Perlu Kebijakan Harga dan Infrastruktur serta Peningkatan Iklim Investasi dan Peningkatan Kemampuan Nasional  yang mendukung untuk mengoptimalkan penggunaan Energi Domestik. Untuk mencukupi kebutuhan energi 2030-2050 perlu dilihat perkembangan Teknologi dan Biaya Energi pada 2020.

Diharapkan Pertamina dan Perusahaan-perusahaan Nasional Migas lain dapat meningkatkan produksi migasnya baik di dalam dan di luar negeri seperti Petronas disamping perlu perbaikan Sistem Fiskal dan Iklim Investasi serta Sistem Informasi untuk meningkatkan Investasi Internasional Migas di Indonesia.

Terobosan Teknologi (Nano) menyebabkan Energi Terbarukan lebih murah dimasa depan. Konservasi atau Penghematan Energi mengurangi Pemakaian dan Pasokan Energi serta mengurangi Polusi. Pemakaian mobil irit bensin seperti yang dihasilkan ITS dan penghematan energi lainnya perlu didukung dan dikembangkan secara Nasional.

Peningkatan Kemampuan energi Nasional wajib dilakukan . Dana dapat diperoleh dari Penghematan yang diperoleh dari digantikannya BBM (Bahan Bakar Minyak) yang mahal dan sudah diimpor dengan energi lain yang lebih murah dan tersedia di dalam negeri (gas, batubara, panasbumi dan energi terbarukan lain).

Untuk menghindari krisis energi dimasa datang perlu dioptimalkan pemanfaatan energi di Indonesia baik dari sisi pemanfaatan sumberdaya maupun pemanfaatannya.

Untuk itu dibutuhkan kerjasama dan kasih sayang, kejujuran dan keterbukaan, kerja keras dan cerdas dari seluruh Bangsa Indonesia. Kita perlu melakukan hal-hal yang benar untuk Negeri ini.


Ketika Harry Potter "selamat" dari Voldemore (Musuhnya), Dumbledore (Kepala Sekolahnya): mengatakan:

"Someday, you will have to choose between what is right and what is easy." 

Pilihan kita, mau "benar" tetapi ,walaupun sulit, "berhasil" di jangka panjang atau mau "gampang" tetapi "standstill" tidak kemana mana.

Menurut Yasadipura (kakek Ranggawarsita) mengatakan:

"Waniya ing gampang, wediya ing pakewuh, sabarang nora tumeka." artinya: sukailah kemudahan, takutilah kesulitan, maka tidak ada yang diperoleh.

Persoalan energi dan bangsa tidak bisa hanya diselesaikan oleh Pemerintah saja.

Negara yang baik membutuhkan adilnya Pemimpin, amalnya Pengusaha, ilmunya Akademisi (Ulama) serta kesabaran, kemandirian dan keperdulian Masyarakat.

Daftar Pustaka

1.    Economics and Development Resource Center, Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Project, ADB (Asian Development Bank), Manila, 1997.
2.    Gustav R. Grob, Energy Status Quo and Technology towards Clean Energy, Chengdu, China, September 28, 2010.
3.    IEA (International Energy Agency), Energy Thecnology Prespectives, Scenarios & Strategies to 2050, Paris, 2010.
4.    Partowidagdo, W, Migas dan Energi di Indonesia, Permasalahan dan Analisis Kebijakan, Development Studies Foundation, Bandung, 2009.
5.    Partowidagdo, W., Mengenal Pembangunan dan Analisis Kebijakan, Bandung, Development Studies Foundation, 2010.
6.    Petronas, Profitability Based Revenue-over-Cost (R/C) PSC, Manila, Philippines, 14 – 19 March 2005.
7.    The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., 125 Projects to Change The World, New York, 2006.

BRIAN GREENE The Elegant Universe

BRIAN GREENE

The Elegant Universe Superstrings, Hidden Dimensions, and the Quest for the Ultimate Theory

Themes

The book is divided into three themes in the following parts:

• Part I: The Edge of Knowledge
• Part II: The Dilemma of Space, Time, and the Quanta
• Part III: The Cosmic Symphony
• Part IV: String Theory and the Fabric of Spacetime
• Part V: Unification in the Twenty-First Century

Calling it a cover-up would be far too dramatic. But for more than half a century — even in the midst of some of the greatest scientific achievements in history — physicists have been quietly aware of a dark cloud looming on a distant horizon. The problem is this: There are two foundational pillars upon which modern physics rests. One is Albert Einstein's general relativity, which provides a theoretical framework for understanding the universe on the largest of scales: stars, galaxies, clusters of galaxies, and beyond to the immense expanse of the universe itself. 

The other is quantum mechanics, which provides a theoretical framework for understanding the universe on the smallest of scales: molecules, atoms, and all the way down to subatomic particles like electrons and quarks. Through years of research, physicists have experimentally confirmed to almost unimaginable accuracy virtually all predictions made by each of these theories. But these same theoretical tools inexorably lead to another disturbing conclusion: As they are currently formulated, general relativity and quantum mechanics cannot both be right. The two theories underlying the tremendous progress of physics during the last hundred years — progress that has explained the expansion of the heavens and the fundamental structure of matter — are mutually incompatible.

If you have not heard previously about this ferocious antagonism you may be wondering why. The answer is not hard to come by. In all but the most extreme situations, physicists study things that are either small and light (like atoms and their constituents) or things that are huge and heavy (like stars and galaxies), but not both. This means that they need use only quantum mechanics or only general relativity and can, with a furtive glance, shrug off the barking admonition of the other. For fifty years this approach has not been quite as blissful as ignorance, but it has been pretty close.

But the universe can be extreme. In the central depths of a black hole an enormous mass is crushed to a minuscule size. At the moment of the big bang the whole of the universe erupted from a microscopic nugget whose size makes a grain of sand look colossal. These are realms that are tiny and yet incredibly massive, therefore requiring that both quantum mechanics and general relativity simultaneously be brought to bear. 

For reasons that will become increasingly clear as we proceed, the equations of general relativity and quantum mechanics, when combined, begin to shake, rattle, and gush with steam like a red-lined automobile. Put less figuratively, well-posed physical questions elicit nonsensical answers from the unhappy amalgam of these two theories. 

Even if you are willing to keep the deep interior of a black hole and the beginning of the universe shrouded in mystery, you can't help feeling that the hostility between quantum mechanics and general relativity cries out for a deeper level of understanding. Can it really be that the universe at its most fundamental level is divided, requiring one set of laws when things are large and a different, incompatible set when things are small?

Superstring theory, a young upstart compared with the venerable edifices of quantum mechanics and general relativity, answers with a resounding no. Intense research over the past decade by physicists and mathematicians around the world has revealed that this new approach to describing matter at its most fundamental level resolves the tension between general relativity and quantum mechanics. In fact, superstring theory shows more: Within this new framework, general relativity and quantum mechanics require one another for the theory to make sense. According to superstring theory, the marriage of the laws of the large and the small is not only happy but inevitable.

That's part of the good news. But superstring theory — string theory, for short — takes this union one giant step further. For three decades, Einstein sought a unified theory of physics, one that would interweave all of nature's forces and material constituents within a single theoretical tapestry. He failed. Now, at the dawn of the new millennium, proponents of string theory claim that the threads of this elusive unified tapestry finally have been revealed. String theory has the potential to show that all of the wondrous happenings in the universe — from the frantic dance of subatomic quarks to the stately waltz of orbiting binary stars, from the primordial fireball of the big bang to the majestic swirl of heavenly galaxies — are reflections of one grand physical principle, one master equation.

Because these features of string theory require that we drastically change our understanding of space, time, and matter, they will take some time to get used to, to sink in at a comfortable level. But as shall become clear, when seen in its proper context, string theory emerges as a dramatic yet natural outgrowth of the revolutionary discoveries of physics during the past hundred years. In fact, we shall see that the conflict between general relativity and quantum mechanics is actually not the first, but the third in a sequence of pivotal conflicts encountered during the past century, each of whose resolution has resulted in a stunning revision of our understanding of the universe.

---

The Three Conflicts

The first conflict, recognized as far back as the late 1800s, concerns puzzling properties of the motion of light. Briefly put, according to Isaac Newton's laws of motion, if you run fast enough you can catch up with a departing beam of light, whereas according to James Clerk Maxwell's laws of electromagnetism, you can't. As we will discuss in Chapter 2, Einstein resolved this conflict through his theory of special relativity, and in so doing completely overturned our understanding of space and time. According to special relativity, no longer can space and time be thought of as universal concepts set in stone, experienced identically by everyone. Rather, space and time emerged from Einstein's reworking as malleable constructs whose form and appearance depend on one's state of motion.

The development of special relativity immediately set the stage for the second conflict. One conclusion of Einstein's work is that no object — in fact, no influence or disturbance of any sort — can travel faster than the speed of light. But, as we shall discuss in Chapter 3, Newton's experimentally successful and intuitively pleasing universal theory of gravitation involves influences that are transmitted over vast distances of space instantaneously. It was Einstein, again, who stepped in and resolved the conflict by offering a new conception of gravity with his 1915 general theory of relativity. 

Just as special relativity overturned previous conceptions of space and time, so too did general relativity. Not only are space and time influenced by one's state of motion, but they can warp and curve in response to the presence of matter or energy. Such distortions to the fabric of space and time, as we shall see, transmit the force of gravity from one place to another. Space and time, therefore, can no longer to be thought of as an inert backdrop on which the events of the universe play themselves out; rather, through special and then general relativity, they are intimate players in the events themselves.

Once again the pattern repeated itself: The discovery of general relativity, while resolving one conflict, led to another. Over the course of the three decades beginning in 1900, physicists developed quantum mechanics (discussed in Chapter 4) in response to a number of glaring problems that arose when nineteenth-century conceptions of physics were applied to the microscopic world. 

And as mentioned above, the third and deepest conflict arises from the incompatibility between quantum mechanics and general relativity. As we will see in Chapter 5, the gently curving geometrical form of space emerging from general relativity is at loggerheads with the frantic, roiling, microscopic behavior of the universe implied by quantum mechanics. As it was not until the mid-1980s that string theory offered a resolution, this conflict is rightly called the central problem of modern physics.

 Moreover, building on special and general relativity, string theory requires its own severe revamping of our conceptions of space and time. For example, most of us take for granted that our universe has three spatial dimensions. But this is not so according to string theory, which claims that our universe has many more dimensions than meet the eye — dimensions that are tightly curled into the folded fabric of the cosmos. So central are these remarkable insights into the nature of space and time that we shall use them as a guiding theme in all that follows. String theory, in a real sense, is the story of space and time since Einstein.

To appreciate what string theory actually is, we need to take a step back and briefly describe what we have learned during the last century about the microscopic structure of the universe.

Sumber:

Prof. BRIAN GREENE

Dirac Large Numbers Hypothesis

The Dirac large numbers hypothesis uses the ratio of the size of the visible universe to the radius of quantum particle to predict the age of the universe. 

The coincidence of various ratios being close in order of magnitude may ultimately prove meaningless or the indication of a deeper connection between concepts in a future theory of everything. Nevertheless, attempts to use such ideas have been criticized as numerology.

The Dirac large numbers hypothesis (LNH) is an observation made by Paul Dirac in 1937 relating ratios of size scales in the Universe to that of force scales. The ratios constitute very large, dimensionless numbers: some 40 orders of magnitude in the present cosmological epoch. According to Dirac's hypothesis, the apparent equivalence of these ratios might not be a mere coincidence but instead could imply a cosmology with these unusual features:

• The strength of gravity, as represented by the gravitational constant, is inversely proportional to the age of the universe:
• The mass of the universe is proportional to the square of the universe's age: .

Neither of these two features has gained wide acceptance in mainstream physics and, though some proponents of non-standard cosmologies refer to Dirac's cosmology as a foundational basis for their own ideas and studies, some physicists dismiss the large numbers in LNH as mere coincidences.

A coincidence, however, may be defined optimally as 'an event that provides support for an alternative to a currently favoured causal theory, but not necessarily enough support to accept that alternative in light of its low prior probability.' 

Research into LNH, or the large number of coincidences that underpin it, appears to have gained new impetus from failures in standard cosmology to account for anomalies such as the recent discovery that the universe might be expanding at an accelerated rate.

Sumber:

Wikipedia